🇨🇦 Canada · Express Entry

Express Entry draws & predictions

Every IRCC round, category cut-offs, live pool composition, and honest pattern-based estimates of when the next draw might land.

Data: IRCC official rounds feed · latest draw 7 Jul 2026 · pool as of July 5, 2026 · rebuilt 6 Jul 2026.

Latest draw · #424

CRS 517

CEC · 2,000 invitations · 7 Jul 2026

Invitations in 2026 (YTD)

91,601

across all categories

Candidates in pool

235,127

as of July 5, 2026

Predictions

Next draw: when, and at what score?

For each recently active category, the timing window comes from its draw cadence, and the cut-off from a per-category model chosen by backtest — nine candidate models compete on the category's own history, and the one that actually predicted past draws best makes the call.

French Medium timing confidence

Overdue — expected any time

412

likely 383–428

±10.5 pts avg error, last 10 draws

Model: last cut-off + trend, blended with pool-band inversion (best of 9 backtested)

Typical invitations4,000
Median gap26 days
Last drawCRS 409 · May 28

PNP High timing confidence

Next draw expected around Jul 20 (±7 days)

726

likely 674–776

±32.4 pts avg error, last 10 draws

Model: weighted recent cut-offs + trend (best of 9 backtested)

Typical invitations534
Median gap14 days
Last drawCRS 708 · Jul 6

CEC Medium timing confidence

Next draw expected around Jul 21 (±8 days)

517

likely 507–522

±2.0 pts avg error, last 10 draws

Model: last cut-off carried forward (best of 9 backtested)

Typical invitations3,000
Median gap14 days
Last drawCRS 517 · Jul 7

Healthcare Low timing confidence

Next draw expected around Aug 21 (±40 days)

475

likely 461–496

±14.4 pts avg error, last 9 draws

Model: last cut-off carried forward (best of 9 backtested)

Typical invitations4,000
Median gap57 days
Last drawCRS 475 · Jun 25

Pattern-based estimates from IRCC's official draw history — cadence and cut-offs shift with policy, so treat these as expectations, not announcements. Ranges are calibrated so that roughly 8 in 10 past draws landed inside them.

What if?

Scenario explorer: test your own assumptions

The predictions above assume current patterns hold. Waiting on a specific category? Pick it, then ask: what if draws come less often, get smaller, or the pool keeps swelling? Everything below recomputes live from the same backtested model.

Draw frequency every 26 days

Usual for French: every 26 days

Draw size 4,000 invitations

Recent French draws: ~4,000 invitations

Pool growth +0.5%/month

Recent trend: +0.5%/month (+275/week)

Baseline: last cut-off + trend, blended with pool-band inversion — avg miss 10.5 pts over its last 10 French draws

Next French draws — your scenario

Overdue — a draw is expected any day

412

likely 383–428

= model baseline

7 Jul 2026projected cut-off 412 · range 383–428 · overdue
2 Aug 2026projected cut-off 413 · range 372–436
28 Aug 2026projected cut-off 413 · range 363–441
23 Sep 2026projected cut-off 414 · range 356–446
19 Oct 2026projected cut-off 414 · range 349–450
14 Nov 2026projected cut-off 415 · range 344–454

Cut-off trajectory

Actual cut-offsScenario (dashed, shaded range)

Pool size over time, by CRS score band

601–1200501–600491–500481–490471–480461–470451–460441–450431–440421–430411–420401–410351–400301–3500–300

Left of the divider: IRCC’s published pool snapshots (last 12 months). Right: your scenario projected monthly — bands scale proportionally with the projected total. Hover any segment for exact counts.

The pool under this scenario, by CRS score band

235,166 candidates today (+0.0% vs the July 5, 2026 snapshot) · your assumptions imply ~+270/week

601–1200525

501–60018,614

451–50073,703

401–45065,829

351–40051,104

301–35017,516

0–3007,874

Highlighted band: where the projected next cut-off (412) falls. Bands are scaled proportionally with the total.

Scenarios layer your assumptions onto the pool-inversion model: the pool scales with your growth rate, slower or smaller draws leave more candidates in it, and cut-offs re-solve against that projected pool — anchored so the default sliders reproduce the backtested prediction above. Ranges widen with each draw ahead. No model of past draws can see a policy change coming.

Model check

Don't trust us — check the model's record

Dashed line: what the model would have predicted before each draw, using only information available at the time. Solid line: what IRCC actually did.

CEC — model vs actual, last 12 draws

Actual cut-offModel (out-of-sample)

Every point is out-of-sample: predicted using only draws and pool data published before that draw. Average miss: 5.3 pts (2.0 over the last 10).

French — model vs actual, last 12 draws

Actual cut-offModel (out-of-sample)

Every point is out-of-sample: predicted using only draws and pool data published before that draw. Average miss: 21.0 pts (10.5 over the last 10).

Pool forecast

How big will the pool get?

Trend-based forecast of the candidate pool, backtested on IRCC's own published snapshots (average 28-day error: 1.3%). For a band-by-band view under your own assumptions, use the scenario explorer above.

Pool now

235,127

as of July 5, 2026 · +275/week recent net

In 30 days

236,305

likely 231,513–242,138

In 60 days

237,484

likely 230,673–245,773

In 90 days

238,662

likely 230,279–248,865

Candidates in poolForecast (80% range shaded)

Watch the 501–600 band

This is where CEC cut-offs live, and it is filling fast: 18,611 candidates now, growing ~462/week — on trend ~24,557 by Oct 3. If draw sizes stay where they are, that is upward pressure on CEC cut-offs.

Trend

CRS cut-offs over the last 18 months

One line per active category. Cut-offs move with pool size, draw size and policy.

CECPNPFrenchHealthcare

Job-offer points were removed on 25 March 2025

CRS points for arranged employment (job offers) were removed on 25 March 2025. A job offer no longer adds 50 or 200 CRS points. Model your score without them in our CRS calculator. (As of 2025-03-25)

Methodology

How these predictions are made

Cut-off model

For each category, nine candidate models compete: carry-forward, medians and exponentially weighted averages of recent cut-offs, robust (Theil–Sen) trend extrapolations, a pool-inversion model — IRCC's published score distribution tells us how many candidates sit above any score; past draws tell us what share of them belongs to this category; inverting that against the planned draw size yields a cut-off — and blends of the two families.

Every candidate is walk-forward backtested: for each 2025–26 draw we predict it using only draws and pool snapshots published before it (draw size estimated from prior draws, never the actual). The model shown is whichever had the smallest average miss, and the range comes from its real past errors — sized so roughly 8 in 10 draws landed inside.

Pool model

Pool size follows a drift model: the recent net growth rate (weighted toward the latest snapshots, half-life 30 days) extrapolated from the last published count. Backtested the same walk-forward way against IRCC's own snapshots: average 28-day error 1.3% over 44 tests.

Scenario explorer

Your sliders re-solve the pool-inversion cut-off against a pool scaled by your growth rate, with a feedback term: fewer or smaller draws in your category leave more candidates in the pool. Score bands scale proportionally with the total, and projections are anchored so default sliders reproduce the backtested prediction. The further out a draw, the wider its range.

What this can't see

Policy. A ministerial instruction, a new category, or a paused program changes the game overnight, and no model of past draws will see it coming. Treat everything here as a well-calibrated reading of current patterns — not a promise. Source data: IRCC rounds of invitations, refreshed daily.

Draw history

Last 30 rounds

Filter by category. Full history on the official IRCC rounds page.

Date	#	Category	Invitations	CRS
7 Jul 2026	424	CEC	2,000	517
6 Jul 2026	423	PNP	534	708
25 Jun 2026	422	Healthcare	4,000	475
24 Jun 2026	421	Physicians	271	223
23 Jun 2026	420	CEC	4,000	516
22 Jun 2026	419	PNP	955	730
28 May 2026	418	French	4,500	409
27 May 2026	417	CEC	3,000	518
25 May 2026	416	PNP	334	805
11 May 2026	415	PNP	380	798
29 Apr 2026	414	French	4,000	400
28 Apr 2026	413	CEC	2,000	514
27 Apr 2026	412	PNP	473	795
15 Apr 2026	411	French	4,000	419
14 Apr 2026	410	CEC	2,000	515
13 Apr 2026	409	PNP	324	786
2 Apr 2026	408	Trades	3,000	477
31 Mar 2026	407	CEC	2,250	509
30 Mar 2026	406	PNP	356	802
18 Mar 2026	405	French	4,000	393
17 Mar 2026	404	CEC	4,000	507
16 Mar 2026	403	PNP	362	742
5 Mar 2026	402	Senior Managers	250	429
4 Mar 2026	401	French	5,500	397
3 Mar 2026	400	CEC	4,000	508
2 Mar 2026	399	PNP	264	710
20 Feb 2026	398	Healthcare	4,000	467
19 Feb 2026	397	Physicians	391	169
17 Feb 2026	396	CEC	6,000	508
16 Feb 2026	395	PNP	279	789