🇨🇦 Canada · Express Entry

Express Entry draws & predictions

Every IRCC round, category cut-offs, live pool composition, and honest pattern-based estimates of when the next draw might land.

Data: IRCC official rounds feed · latest draw 28 Oct 2026 · pool as of October 25, 2026 · page built 4 Nov 2026.

Draw timing below counts from 28 Oct 2026, the date of the latest data in this build.

Latest draw · #453

CRS 477

Transport · 150 invitations · 28 Oct 2026

Invitations in 2026 (YTD)

149,409

across all categories

Candidates in pool

228,724

as of October 25, 2026

Predictions

Next draw: when, and at what score?

For each recently active category, the timing window comes from its draw cadence, and the cut-off from a per-category model chosen by backtest — nine candidate models compete on the category's own history, and the one that actually predicted past draws best makes the call.

CEC High timing confidence

Next draw expected around Oct 29 (±7 days) (as of 28 Oct 2026)

519

likely 511–525

±2.1 pts avg error, last 10 draws

Model: last cut-off carried forward (best of 9 backtested)

Typical invitations2,000
Median gap14 days
Last drawCRS 519 · Oct 15

French Timing: IRCC pause

Rounds paused — no restart date announcedIRCC paused invitations from 3 Nov 2026 to recalculate scores for the new CRS rules and said this could take up to two weeks. (as of 28 Oct 2026)

400

likely 366–415

±12.3 pts avg error, last 10 draws

Model: pool-band inversion (best of 9 backtested)

Typical invitations5,000
Median gap13 days
Last drawCRS 407 · Oct 27

PNP Timing: IRCC pause

Rounds paused — no restart date announcedIRCC paused invitations from 3 Nov 2026 to recalculate scores for the new CRS rules and said this could take up to two weeks. (as of 28 Oct 2026)

757

likely 702–804

±29.9 pts avg error, last 10 draws

Model: exponentially weighted recent cut-offs (best of 9 backtested)

Typical invitations752
Median gap14 days
Last drawCRS 761 · Oct 26

Healthcare Timing: IRCC pause

Rounds paused — no restart date announcedIRCC paused invitations from 3 Nov 2026 to recalculate scores for the new CRS rules and said this could take up to two weeks. (as of 28 Oct 2026)

475

likely 463–492

±13.0 pts avg error, last 10 draws

Model: last cut-off carried forward (best of 9 backtested)

Typical invitations4,000
Median gap71 days
Last drawCRS 475 · Sep 4

Physicians Low timing confidence

Next draw expected around Dec 10 (±38 days) (as of 28 Oct 2026)

169–223

range of last 3 draws

Typical invitations271
Median gap98 days
Last drawSep 3

Senior Managers Low timing confidence

Next draw expected around Dec 23 (±42 days) (as of 28 Oct 2026)

389–429

range of last 3 draws

Typical invitations250
Median gap98 days
Last drawSep 16

Pattern-based estimates from IRCC's official draw history — cadence and cut-offs shift with policy, so treat these as expectations, not announcements. Ranges are calibrated so that roughly 8 in 10 past draws landed inside them.

What if?

Scenario explorer: test your own assumptions

The predictions above assume current patterns hold. Waiting on a specific category? Pick it, then ask: what if draws come less often, get smaller, or the pool keeps swelling? Everything below recomputes live from the same backtested model.

Draw frequency every 14 days

Usual for CEC: every 14 days

Draw size 2,000 invitations

Recent CEC draws: ~2,000 invitations

Pool growth +0.1%/month

Recent trend: +0.1%/month (+72/week)

Baseline: last cut-off carried forward — avg miss 2.1 pts over its last 10 CEC draws

Next CEC draws — your scenario

Next draw around 29 Oct 2026

519

likely 511–525

= model baseline

29 Oct 2026projected cut-off 519 · range 511–525
18 Nov 2026projected cut-off 519 · range 508–527 · assumed restart
2 Dec 2026projected cut-off 519 · range 505–529
16 Dec 2026projected cut-off 519 · range 503–531
30 Dec 2026projected cut-off 519 · range 501–532
13 Jan 2027projected cut-off 519 · range 499–534

Cut-off trajectory

Actual cut-offsScenario (dashed, shaded range)

Pool size over time, by CRS score band

601–1200501–600491–500481–490471–480461–470451–460441–450431–440421–430411–420401–410351–400301–3500–300

Left of the divider: IRCC’s published pool snapshots (last 1 year). Right: your scenario projected monthly — bands scale proportionally with the projected total. Hover any segment for exact counts.

The pool under this scenario, by CRS score band

228,747 candidates today (+0.0% vs the October 25, 2026 snapshot) · your assumptions imply ~+53/week

601–1200787

501–60020,537

451–50071,119

401–45063,511

351–40047,916

301–35017,249

0–3007,628

Highlighted band: where the projected next cut-off (519) falls. Bands are scaled proportionally with the total.

Scenarios layer your assumptions onto the pool-inversion model: the pool scales with your growth rate, slower or smaller draws leave more candidates in it, and cut-offs re-solve against that projected pool — anchored so the default sliders reproduce the backtested prediction above. Ranges widen with each draw ahead. No model of past draws can see a policy change coming.

Model check

Don't trust us — check the model's record

Dashed line: what the model would have predicted before each draw, using only information available at the time. Solid line: what IRCC actually did.

CEC — model vs actual, last 12 draws

Actual cut-offModel (out-of-sample)

Every point is out-of-sample: predicted using only draws and pool data published before that draw. Average miss: 4.6 pts (2.1 over the last 10).

French — model vs actual, last 12 draws

Actual cut-offModel (out-of-sample)

Every point is out-of-sample: predicted using only draws and pool data published before that draw. Average miss: 19.5 pts (12.3 over the last 10).

Pool forecast

How big will the pool get?

Trend-based forecast of the candidate pool, backtested on IRCC's own published snapshots (average 28-day error: 1.5%). For a band-by-band view under your own assumptions, use the scenario explorer above.

Pool now

228,724

as of October 25, 2026 · +72/week recent net

In 30 days

229,035

likely 224,168–235,327

In 60 days

229,345

likely 222,453–238,256

In 90 days

229,656

likely 221,203–240,584

Candidates in poolForecast (80% range shaded)

Watch the 501–600 band

This is where CEC cut-offs live, and it is filling fast: 20,535 candidates now, growing ~160/week — on trend ~22,598 by Jan 23. If draw sizes stay where they are, that is upward pressure on CEC cut-offs.

Trend

CRS cut-offs over time

One line per draw stream. Pick the window and streams you care about — this browser remembers your choices. Cut-offs move with pool size, draw size and policy.

CECPNPFrenchHealthcareTrades

New CRS points from 3 November 2026: labour market integration

From 3 November 2026 the CRS adds a Labour Market Integration factor worth up to 150 points (140 with an accompanying spouse). You get the higher of two routes, never both: Canadian work experience (the same work-length points, plus 70, 40 or 20 extra points for at least 12 months in an occupation paying at least 2x, 1.5x or 1.3x the average median wage), or a qualifying job offer in one of those high-wage occupations (100, 70 or 50 points). A job offer outside the high-wage list earns no CRS points, and an LMIA is no longer required. IRCC is recalculating every profile, which could take up to two weeks, and has paused invitation rounds until that is done. Look up your occupation and model the new points in our CRS calculator. IRCC: 2026 changes (As of 2026-11-03)

Methodology

How these predictions are made

Cut-off model

For each category, nine candidate models compete: carry-forward, medians and exponentially weighted averages of recent cut-offs, robust (Theil–Sen) trend extrapolations, a pool-inversion model — IRCC's published score distribution tells us how many candidates sit above any score; past draws tell us what share of them belongs to this category; inverting that against the planned draw size yields a cut-off — and blends of the two families.

Every candidate is walk-forward backtested: for each 2025–26 draw we predict it using only draws and pool snapshots published before it (draw size estimated from prior draws, never the actual). The model shown is whichever had the smallest average miss, and the range comes from its real past errors — sized so roughly 8 in 10 draws landed inside.

Pool model

Pool size follows a drift model: the recent net growth rate (weighted toward the latest snapshots, half-life 30 days) extrapolated from the last published count. Backtested the same walk-forward way against IRCC's own snapshots: average 28-day error 1.5% over 52 tests.

Scenario explorer

Your sliders re-solve the pool-inversion cut-off against a pool scaled by your growth rate, with a feedback term: fewer or smaller draws in your category leave more candidates in the pool. Score bands scale proportionally with the total, and projections are anchored so default sliders reproduce the backtested prediction. The further out a draw, the wider its range.

What this can't see

Policy. A ministerial instruction, a new category, or a paused program changes the game overnight, and no model of past draws will see it coming. Treat everything here as a well-calibrated reading of current patterns — not a promise. Source data: IRCC rounds of invitations, refreshed daily.

Draw history

Last 30 rounds

Filter by category. Full history on the official IRCC rounds page.

Date	#	Category	Invitations	CRS
28 Oct 2026	453	Transport	150	477
27 Oct 2026	452	French	5,000	407
26 Oct 2026	451	PNP	792	761
16 Oct 2026	450	French	5,000	435
15 Oct 2026	449	CEC	2,500	519
13 Oct 2026	448	PNP	752	772
1 Oct 2026	447	Trades	3,500	476
29 Sep 2026	446	CEC	2,000	518
28 Sep 2026	445	PNP	733	725
16 Sep 2026	444	Senior Managers	250	389
15 Sep 2026	443	CEC	2,000	519
14 Sep 2026	442	PNP	576	734
4 Sep 2026	441	Healthcare	3,500	475
3 Sep 2026	440	Physicians	229	198
1 Sep 2026	439	CEC	2,000	521
31 Aug 2026	438	PNP	562	697
19 Aug 2026	437	French	5,000	382
18 Aug 2026	436	CEC	1,000	523
17 Aug 2026	435	PNP	442	760
7 Aug 2026	434	Transport	300	470
6 Aug 2026	433	French	5,000	391
5 Aug 2026	432	CEC	3,000	516
4 Aug 2026	431	PNP	507	768
23 Jul 2026	430	Skilled Military	4	368
22 Jul 2026	429	French	5,000	399
21 Jul 2026	428	CEC	2,000	516
20 Jul 2026	427	PNP	511	744
10 Jul 2026	426	Senior Managers	500	392
9 Jul 2026	425	French	5,000	420
7 Jul 2026	424	CEC	2,000	517